The Daily Mail newspaper today publishes a prediction, obtained from "inside sources", regarding the fate that awaits Manchester City when the Premier League's punitive decision for serious financial violations committed over nine seasons, from 2009 to 2018, is translated into the corresponding sanctions, which are expected to be extremely harsh.
These are violations that, according to the allegations, have violated fair competition with other teams. Meanwhile, the club that has dominated English football in recent seasons and has also triumphed in Europe is still waiting for an appeal. Now, across the Channel, the rest of English football is against it, with deep hostility and a desire to plunge it into a serious crisis.
Manchester City, forced relegation to the Championship
According to information provided by the tabloid, Manchester City are expected to receive such a large points deduction during the current season that they will not be able to avoid relegation to the Championship, the second tier of English football. This would undo the great work that Enzo Maresca is doing in the post-Guardiola era. Haaland and his teammates lead the championship with full points after the first seven games, two points ahead of Arsenal.
So it seems likely that a drastic points deduction, after being found guilty by an independent commission on almost all 115 charges, will be preferred as punishment, rather than expulsion from the Premier League. The latter scenario would take the club even lower than the Championship, forcing them to restart in League Two — the fourth tier — at the start of next season.
In the Championship… but not just for one season
The same sources who provided this information to the Daily Mail consider the second scenario "impossible", as not only the Premier League, but especially the English Football League, would be thrown into chaos.
If a club is relegated from the Premier League and is not relegated through the regular system, the EFL, which runs the Championship, League One and League Two, would step in. The organisation and its 72 member clubs would not be obliged to accept Manchester City directly into the Championship. Under the rules, for a relegated club to return to the EFL without winning promotion on the pitch, reintegration must start from the lowest division under its jurisdiction, i.e. League Two, or even the National League, the fifth tier of English football.
Why City are escaping the fourth tier
Manchester City would need a vote of confidence from the English Football League clubs to be allowed to return to the Championship or League One, if they were to be relegated rather than relegated. Many of them would be opposed to giving the Emirates-owned club a shortcut to the second tier after a string of financial irregularities. City would then be forced to start at the lowest level of professional football, the fourth tier. However, the scenario would be truly chaotic. League Two has strict salary caps, set based on the revenue of fourth-tier teams. Running a team with contracts like Manchester City's would be legally and financially unaffordable for the tier.
In addition, it would create an incredible imbalance in the competition: a team like City, even if they were to play with a reduced squad, would completely dominate the championship. There are also logistical and security issues to consider. The small stadiums of League Two, with a capacity of only a few thousand seats, would not be suitable to cope not only with the influx of fans, but also with the huge media attention that a team of that level would bring to every away match.
City and additional punishment: another points deduction to keep them in the Championship for another season
For this reason, the solution that is expected to be resolved is to "force" Manchester City to descend to the Championship through a heavy points deduction, instead of being expelled from the Premier League. To this measure should be added an extremely high fine.
It is also possible that the sanction will include another points deduction, which would effectively condemn City to staying in the second tier for at least another season. The EFL would not be obliged to accept such a sanction for one of its clubs, but it is likely to do so. According to published information, the Premier League is pressing for the punitive measure to be announced before a decision is made on Manchester City's appeal, which is unlikely to be decided before the end of January. For Sky Blues fans, difficult times are being warned.
