The historic victory of Serbian students, which ended the political dominance of Aleksandar Vučić, has been greeted with enthusiasm in Brussels and the Balkan capitals, where the change of power in Belgrade is seen as an opportunity for a new beginning. But behind the congratulations and optimistic statements, a fundamental question remains: will Serbia change only its government, or also its foreign policy, which for years has oscillated between aspirations for membership in the European Union, privileged relations with Russia and China, and an unchanged stance on Kosovo's independence?
According to preliminary results of the October 25 elections, the Student List secured over 52% of the vote, compared to around 39% for Vučić’s coalition, which conceded defeat. The victory came after nearly two years of protests, which began after the Novi Sad tragedy, where the collapse of a concrete shelter at the railway station killed 16 people and became a symbol of corruption and lack of institutional accountability.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the result, expressing her willingness to support the next government.
"We are ready to support reforms in the rule of law, media freedom, the fight against corruption and the strengthening of democratic institutions, as well as to work together to advance Serbia's future in the European Union," she wrote.
Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos stated that now "a new chapter can begin for Serbia. The door to the European Union is open and we are ready to move forward together."
However, European optimism does not automatically resolve the contradiction that characterizes Serbian foreign policy. Belgrade is a candidate for EU membership, but has rejected sanctions against Russia, maintained ties with Moscow and Beijing, while the dialogue to normalize relations with Kosovo has remained blocked.
Moreover, the students' program does not warn of any immediate geopolitical turn. An analysis by the Polish Center for Eastern Studies (OSW) notes that the movement has avoided clear international positions, focusing on corruption and the removal of Vučić. The students have spoken out against sanctions against Russia, while they have not proposed changing Serbia's constitutional position on Kosovo.
This strategy enabled them to unite pro-European, nationalist and pro-Russian voters. According to data cited by OSW, 75% of Student List supporters prefer closer relations with the EU than with Russia, but this does not necessarily imply support for a change in policy towards Kosovo.
The victory was also welcomed by Montenegro, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajic expressed confidence that relations between the two countries would enter a new chapter, while Milorad Dodik, a long-time ally of Vučić, also congratulated the students, promising the continuation of close ties between Republika Srpska and Serbia.
For Brussels, the new government creates the possibility of restoring democratic reforms, but the conditions for integration remain the same: the rule of law, alignment with European foreign policy, and normalization of relations with Kosovo.
In the end, the students' victory proved that Serbian society was willing to change its model of governance, but not necessarily its beliefs about Kosovo, Russia, or Serbia's place in the international order.
Vučić may be out of power, but many of the policies that characterized his rule may survive. The students changed Serbia's political history, but it remains to be seen whether they will also change its foreign policy course.
